SJS beat ARI 7–2. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Noah Gregor scored at 1:30 of the first, moving SJS’s win probability from 47% to 62%. Ivan Prosvetov allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:30 | SJS | Noah Gregor from Nico Sturm | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:38 | SJS | Jacob PetersonPP from Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson | 2–0 | 64% → 76% |
| P1 13:02 | SJS | Kyle Criscuolo unassisted | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P1 17:07 | ARI | J.J. MoserPP from Matias Maccelli, Victor Soderstrom | 3–1 | 8% → 21% |
| P2 1:41 | SJS | Danil GushchinPP from Erik Karlsson, Jacob MacDonald | 4–1 | 81% → 93% |
| P3 8:00 | SJS | Noah Gregor from Nico Sturm | 5–1 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 10:10 | SJS | Logan CouturePP from Tomas Hertl, Erik Karlsson | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 14:47 | SJS | Noah Gregor from Kevin Labanc, Erik Karlsson | 7–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:10 | ARI | Milos Kelemen from Jack McBain, Brett Ritchie | 7–2 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gregor L | 14:26 | 3 | +2.38 | −0.03 | +2.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Criscuolo C | 13:14 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Logan Couture C | 19:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.15 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jacob Peterson C | 17:50 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.16 | +0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Thomas Bordeleau C | 19:26 | +0.44 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Danil Gushchin L | 16:34 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 18:14 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:57 | 4 | +0.13 | +0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 13:06 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 15:15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 11:20 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henry Thrun D | 19:59 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 12:08 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 15:22 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:12 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.15 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 13:13 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob MacDonald D | 20:57 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 14:37 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 60:00 | +0.69 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Moser D | 20:54 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.03 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milos Kelemen L | 8:54 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 18:24 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 19:49 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:24 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:22 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 15:20 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 12:15 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:47 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 20:49 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 13:10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:41 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 10:47 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 12:51 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 20:07 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 16:13 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 18:30 | −0.59 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Prosvetov G | 59:22 | −2.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.