STL beat CHI 5–3. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Logan Brown scored at 12:59 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Petr Mrazek allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:25 | STL | Jakub Vrana from Brandon Saad, Brayden Schenn | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 10:24 | CHI | Andreas AthanasiouPP from Tyler Johnson, Taylor Raddysh | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 12:59 | STL | Logan Brown from Justin Faulk, Josh Leivo | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 13:37 | STL | Alexey Toropchenko from Tyler Pitlick, Justin Faulk | 3–1 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 0:31 | CHI | Tyler JohnsonPP from Taylor Raddysh, Lukas Reichel | 3–2 | 11% → 27% |
| P3 9:25 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Sammy Blais, Kasperi Kapanen | 4–2 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 10:01 | CHI | Boris Katchouk from Seth Jones, Caleb Jones | 4–3 | 4% → 20% |
| P3 18:47 | STL | Brandon SaadEN unassisted | 5–3 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:10 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.06 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Brown C | 11:16 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jakub Vrana L | 17:50 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.03 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:02 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.03 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 17:48 | +0.20 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:49 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 16:09 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 25:03 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 13:29 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Rosen D | 18:41 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 13:30 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 19:33 | 1 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake Neighbours L | 11:31 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 10:55 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 11:10 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 21:30 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 19:35 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:01 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.05 | −0.37 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | +0.16 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boris Katchouk L | 14:48 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.02 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 18:45 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.04 | +0.43 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 19:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.15 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 19:53 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.33 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 25:54 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reese Johnson C | 11:53 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 18:34 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.20 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Englund D | 13:49 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 20:21 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 20:49 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 14:37 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 14:01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 18:10 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 11:15 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 18:34 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joey Anderson R | 11:53 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 14:03 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Wagner L | 11:11 | −0.46 | −0.07 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 57:31 | −1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.