STL beat VAN 6–5 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jakub Vrana scored at 0:28 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Thatcher Demko allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:06 | VAN | Quinn Hughes from Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:50 | STL | Alexey Toropchenko unassisted | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 16:48 | STL | Justin Faulk from Pavel Buchnevich, Sammy Blais | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:41 | VAN | Andrei KuzmenkoPP from J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 7:24 | STL | Jakub Vrana from Brandon Saad | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 12:08 | STL | Robert ThomasPP from Justin Faulk, Brandon Saad | 2–4 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 13:36 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Kasperi Kapanen, Sammy Blais | 2–5 | 90% → 97% |
| P2 18:28 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Quinn Hughes | 3–5 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 12:18 | VAN | Andrei Kuzmenko from Elias Pettersson, Tyler Myers | 4–5 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 19:06 | VAN | Quinn HughesPP from Brock Boeser, Dakota Joshua | 5–5 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 0:28 | STL | Jakub Vrana from Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk | 5–6 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:33 | 2 | 1 | +1.92 | +0.18 | +1.52 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 18:43 | 2 | +1.45 | +0.18 | +1.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 21:48 | 1 | 2 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:44 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.14 | −0.22 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Guillaume Brisebois D | 14:26 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vitali Kravtsov R | 10:17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 14:12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 23:55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 22:12 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jack Studnicka C | 9:26 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 15:21 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 9:50 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 16:01 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 14:01 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.07 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 18:22 | −0.28 | +0.09 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 17:55 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 12:51 | −0.45 | −0.09 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 15:10 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.42 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 58:43 | −2.78 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Vrana L | 15:27 | 2 | +1.23 | +0.12 | +1.32 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 24:07 | 1 | 2 | +0.83 | +0.07 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:47 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.06 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Robert Thomas C | 15:53 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.20 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:51 | +0.31 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 20:14 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 11:45 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 15:32 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 16:11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:43 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 11:39 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:30 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:56 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 20:20 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 12:03 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 13:26 | −0.48 | −0.11 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 13:11 | −0.66 | −0.09 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:12 | −1.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.