DET beat PIT 7–4. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Perron scored on the power play at 16:20 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 91%. Casey DeSmith allowed 3.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:03 | DET | Jonatan BerggrenPP from Austin Czarnik, Joe Veleno | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 11:37 | DET | Andrew Copp from Moritz Seider, Pius Suter | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 16:07 | DET | Dominik Kubalik from Gustav Lindstrom, Jordan Oesterle | 0–3 | 85% → 92% |
| P2 4:40 | PIT | Jason Zucker from Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin | 1–3 | 5% → 13% |
| P2 7:46 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell | 2–3 | 16% → 28% |
| P2 8:41 | PIT | Jeff CarterPP from Bryan Rust, Jeff Petry | 3–3 | 27% → 48% |
| P3 4:05 | DET | David Perron from Dylan Larkin | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 5:26 | PIT | Josh Archibald from Drew O'Connor, Kris Letang | 4–4 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 16:20 | DET | David PerronPP from Moritz Seider, Andrew Copp | 4–5 | 52% → 91% |
| P3 17:05 | DET | David Perron from Dylan Larkin, Jordan Oesterle | 4–6 | 92% → 99% |
| P3 19:23 | DET | Dylan LarkinEN from Pius Suter | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Archibald R | 9:03 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.08 | +0.87 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 16:05 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.21 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:45 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.09 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 8:20 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 15:31 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:33 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 11:38 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.24 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:31 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 24:26 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:57 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 7:29 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 20:31 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 13:55 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 11:17 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 21:04 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.16 | −0.62 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Mark Friedman D | 9:24 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:57 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 21:34 | 1 | −0.46 | +0.06 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 57:52 | −3.49 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Perron L | 16:36 | 3 | +2.55 | +0.10 | +2.44 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 10:52 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.05 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 21:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.18 | +0.44 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Moritz Seider D | 26:42 | 2 | +0.38 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 15:35 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.01 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 17:49 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Taro Hirose L | 7:57 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Luff R | 8:55 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 24:14 | −0.13 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 17:02 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 13:41 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 17:50 | −0.20 | +0.08 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Hagg D | 15:58 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 13:36 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 11:31 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 18:43 | −0.28 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:20 | 1 | 2 | −0.35 | −0.15 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Austin Czarnik C | 10:42 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 60:00 | +0.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.