PHI beat MTL 3–2. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Morgan Frost scored at 17:45 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 50% to 93%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:41 |  PHI | Morgan Frost from Kevin Hayes, Rasmus Ristolainen | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 9:39 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher unassisted | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 17:45 | PHI | Morgan Frost from Cam York | 1–2 | 50% → 93% |
| P3 18:14 | PHI | Owen TippettEN unassisted | 1–3 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:37 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-PinardPP from Jake Evans, Jesse Ylonen | 2–3 | 0% → 3% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:17 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.05 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 17:07 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.19 | +0.64 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 12:42 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Farrell C | 13:03 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 16:43 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| David Savard D | 21:59 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 13:15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 18:02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 15:06 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:44 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:02 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Belzile R | 12:21 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 14:12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 11:50 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 22:59 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 18:35 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:36 | −0.33 | −0.19 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:38 | −0.47 | −0.21 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 58:49 | +0.43 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Frost C | 20:40 | 2 | +1.72 | +0.13 | +1.38 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Cam York D | 16:48 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kieffer Bellows L | 11:11 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 16:33 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 17:48 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 20:41 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 19:46 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:26 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 20:14 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 18:51 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Braun D | 11:28 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 14:11 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 13:49 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 16:53 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 14:04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 18:49 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Wade Allison R | 20:15 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.33 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 19:33 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Sandstrom G | 60:00 | +0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.