MTL beat BUF 4–3 in a shootout. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brendan Gallagher scored at 8:35 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 18% to 48%. Eric Comrie saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:22 | MTL | Jordan Harris from Jonathan Drouin, Mike Matheson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:49 | BUF | Lukas Rousek from Tyson Jost, Owen Power | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 4:28 | MTL | Alex Belzile from David Savard | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 5:49 | BUF | JJ PeterkaPP from Alex Tuch, Casey Mittelstadt | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 8:31 | BUF | Riley Stillman from Victor Olofsson, Lukas Rousek | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 8:35 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Jake Evans, Jesse Ylonen | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:25 | +0.92 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 18:53 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.16 | +0.68 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 15:06 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.08 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | |
| Alex Belzile R | 10:40 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:19 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.12 | +0.47 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 24:48 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 16:05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 8:49 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:09 | −0.07 | +0.33 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.33 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 17:00 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 13:50 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 22:29 | −0.12 | +0.32 | −0.59 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:44 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 19:41 | −0.16 | +0.25 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 19:22 | −0.40 | +0.37 | −0.78 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 18:16 | −0.50 | +0.34 | −0.68 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 29:05 | 1 | −0.61 | +0.23 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 17:24 | 1 | −0.80 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 65:00 | +1.11 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Stillman D | 8:59 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Rousek R | 9:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Kyle Okposo R | 14:09 | +0.26 | +0.25 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 14:32 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 18:04 | +0.08 | −0.61 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 9:35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 10:01 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 29:58 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:28 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 16:53 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 16:34 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 22:22 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 23:50 | −0.36 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:00 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Owen Power D | 27:39 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.26 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 19:37 | 1 | −0.63 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.51 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:58 | −0.92 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.51 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 21:43 | 1 | −1.16 | −0.02 | −0.65 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 64:42 | +1.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.