COL beat ARI 4–3 in a shootout. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored at 15:28 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 12% to 51%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 3.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:30 | COL | Mikko Rantanen unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 10:46 | COL | Bowen Byram from Logan O'Connor, Andrew Cogliano | 2–0 | 69% → 85% |
| P3 10:37 | ARI | Matias Maccelli from Jack McBain | 2–1 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 11:37 | ARI | Christian Fischer from Michael Kesselring | 2–2 | 18% → 52% |
| P3 13:11 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews | 3–2 | 50% → 84% |
| P3 15:28 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Juuso Välimäki, Nick Schmaltz | 3–3 | 12% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 24:13 | 1 | +1.48 | −0.02 | +0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 19:50 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.18 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 21:01 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 16:29 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 10:10 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 13:33 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 11:58 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 9:49 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 11:35 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 16:47 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 14:00 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.33 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:29 | 1 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.51 |
| Devon Toews D | 22:18 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 13:16 | −0.40 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:35 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.40 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.39 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 8:47 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 23:27 | −0.70 | +0.07 | −0.54 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.51 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 23:43 | −0.85 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 65:00 | +3.29 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Fischer R | 17:13 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.10 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.51 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 25:53 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.05 | +0.57 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.39 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 18:37 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.51 | |
| Victor Soderstrom D | 20:59 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 20:13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milos Kelemen L | 3:50 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 23:44 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 23:48 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 15:58 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Smith C | 7:58 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 14:18 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 15:46 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 18:06 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 23:27 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.04 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.33 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 23:52 | −0.74 | −0.09 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 16:05 | −0.80 | −0.01 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.51 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 19:51 | −0.83 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 65:00 | +1.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.