VGK beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (VGK 3.4, EDM 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nicolas Roy scored at 2:26 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:01 |  VGK | Jack Eichel from Ivan Barbashev, Jonathan Marchessault | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:28 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 16:27 | VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from William Karlsson, Phil Kessel | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 10:30 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 6:57 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore | 3–2 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 11:19 | EDM | Warren Foegele from Darnell Nurse, Kailer Yamamoto | 3–3 | 19% → 52% |
| OT 2:26 | VGK | Nicolas Roy from Jack Eichel, Shea Theodore | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 20:37 | 1 | 2 | +0.89 | +0.28 | +0.18 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.05 | +0.40 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:28 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.27 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 13:51 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.16 | +0.40 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:50 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 25:00 | +0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 18:06 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.09 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 24:07 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.23 | −0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:32 | +0.04 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 13:30 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 9:24 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:05 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 15:02 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:43 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 15:46 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 11:29 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:54 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 12:45 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 62:26 | +0.54 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Foegele L | 12:32 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.14 | +0.23 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 19:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.11 | +0.24 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Zach Hyman L | 15:20 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.39 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Shore C | 7:51 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 23:25 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:38 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 17:45 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:18 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 7:15 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 10:37 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 15:42 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 14:59 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 20:03 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 22:08 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 16:04 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:38 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.43 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 20:34 | −0.47 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:00 | −0.64 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 62:26 | −0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.