MTL beat CBJ 8–2. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Rafael Harvey-Pinard scored at 0:13 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:32 | CBJ | Lane Pederson from Kent Johnson, Jack Roslovic | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:39 | MTL | Mike Hoffman from Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 9:43 | MTL | Jesse Ylonen from Brendan Gallagher, Joel Edmundson | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:00 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Andrew Peeke, Gavin Bayreuther | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 0:13 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-Pinard from Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:13 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-Pinard from Mike Hoffman, Nick Suzuki | 2–4 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 13:08 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Jake Evans, Jesse Ylonen | 2–5 | 89% → 97% |
| P2 16:42 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-PinardPP from Mike Hoffman, Mike Matheson | 2–6 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 11:48 | MTL | Alex Belzile from Chris Tierney, Johnathan Kovacevic | 2–7 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 13:49 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Johnathan Kovacevic, Jordan Harris | 2–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:58 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.09 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Lane Pederson C | 14:30 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.03 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Liam Foudy C | 12:41 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:18 | +0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 15:18 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 19:05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Berni D | 14:57 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hunter McKown C | 14:58 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 21:13 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:24 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 13:22 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Trey Fix-Wolansky R | 13:19 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:01 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 19:40 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 19:07 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 14:05 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 17:29 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 20:03 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Hutchinson G | 22:58 | −1.42 |
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 37:02 | −3.60 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 14:55 | 3 | +2.54 | +0.04 | +2.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Belzile R | 14:13 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.02 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 11:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.08 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 15:59 | 1 | 3 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.77 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.07 | +0.61 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mike Hoffman C | 14:21 | 1 | 2 | +0.59 | +0.00 | +0.75 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jake Evans C | 17:02 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 13:52 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:26 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 15:03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 14:28 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 17:53 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 17:12 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 19:00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 22:15 | 3 | −0.18 | +0.12 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 17:45 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 13:02 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 20:19 | −0.41 | +0.10 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | +0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.