EDM beat ARI 4–3 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored at 1:31 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Stuart Skinner allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:47 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 15:47 | ARI | J.J. MoserPP from Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 3:37 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 19:50 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Leon Draisaitl | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 8:54 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Barrett Hayton, Nick Schmaltz | 3–2 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 12:17 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse | 3–3 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 1:31 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Leon Draisaitl | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 20:55 | 2 | +1.21 | +0.00 | +1.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 27:52 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.16 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 14:34 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 11:46 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 13:04 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:43 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 15:28 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 27:27 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bokondji Imama L | 6:52 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 16:17 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 7:48 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Milos Kelemen L | 6:19 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 19:09 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 19:15 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 20:46 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 13:21 | −0.39 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 21:39 | −0.51 | −0.41 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 14:41 | −0.56 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 61:31 | +0.25 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 23:03 | 2 | +1.61 | +0.41 | +1.15 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 25:41 | 2 | +1.55 | +0.60 | +0.64 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:13 | +0.53 | +0.54 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:45 | 4 | +0.45 | +0.62 | −0.48 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.07 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 11:26 | +0.13 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 11:58 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 18:43 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 11:00 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 19:57 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 10:48 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 9:31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 18:53 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 7:06 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:30 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 12:26 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 23:56 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.29 | −0.45 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 16:09 | −0.33 | +0.20 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:13 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 61:23 | −1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.