SEA beat DAL 5–4 in overtime. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Larsson scored at 1:52 of overtime, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jake Oettinger allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:32 | SEA | Brandon Tanev from Daniel Sprong, Carson Soucy | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:52 | DAL | Miro HeiskanenPP from Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 12:20 | SEA | Daniel Sprong from Brandon Tanev, Adam Larsson | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 1:37 | SEA | Jared McCann from Jordan Eberle, Jamie Oleksiak | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P3 3:57 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Jamie Benn, Ryan Suter | 3–2 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 14:03 | SEA | Brandon Tanev from Morgan Geekie, Carson Soucy | 4–2 | 85% → 98% |
| P3 16:34 | DAL | Joe PavelskiPP from Evgenii Dadonov, Jamie Benn | 4–3 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 19:59 | DAL | Jamie BennPP from Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen | 4–4 | 3% → 52% |
| OT 1:52 | SEA | Adam Larsson from Jared McCann, Alexander Wennberg | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:41 | 2 | 1 | +1.59 | −0.02 | +1.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jared McCann L | 17:22 | 1 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.15 | +0.64 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Adam Larsson D | 24:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.12 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Daniel Sprong R | 9:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.06 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:47 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 9:01 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 18:24 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 15:33 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:57 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 24:06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 16:54 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:08 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 16:02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:31 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 17:20 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jesper Froden R | 10:43 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:28 | −0.78 | −0.29 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 61:52 | −0.89 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Pavelski C | 19:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.10 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 30:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.12 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jamie Benn L | 20:13 | 1 | 2 | +0.34 | +0.04 | +0.28 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 19:12 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.05 | +0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 9:11 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 14:09 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 19:29 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 21:36 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 17:00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 14:16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 13:58 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 18:55 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 12:09 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 18:24 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:20 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 7:17 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 18:21 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 19:43 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.09 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 59:11 | −2.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.