CBJ beat WSH 7–6 in overtime. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jack Roslovic scored at 2:43 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Charlie Lindgren allowed 3.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:12 |  WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:10 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Martin Fehérváry, Sonny Milano | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 16:00 | WSH | Conor Sheary from Rasmus Sandin, Aliaksei Protas | 0–3 | 85% → 92% |
| P1 16:45 | CBJ | Eric Robinson from Mathieu Olivier | 1–3 | 7% → 15% |
| P2 6:57 | CBJ | Adam Boqvist from Emil Bemstrom, Cole Sillinger | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 10:36 | WSH | Sonny Milano from Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie | 2–4 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 15:01 | CBJ | Jack RoslovicPP from Kent Johnson, Nick Blankenburg | 3–4 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 19:52 | WSH | Nick Jensen from Nic Dowd, Tom Wilson | 3–5 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 6:37 | CBJ | Adam Boqvist from Lane Pederson, Eric Robinson | 4–5 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 8:35 | CBJ | Emil Bemstrom from Patrik Laine, Johnny Gaudreau | 5–5 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 15:24 | WSH | Nick Jensen from Charlie Lindgren | 5–6 | 51% → 89% |
| P3 19:13 | CBJ | Boone JennerPP from Kent Johnson, Patrik Laine | 6–6 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 2:43 | CBJ | Jack Roslovic from Johnny Gaudreau | 7–6 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:17 | 2 | +1.51 | −0.10 | +1.62 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 25:19 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.12 | +1.39 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 12:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.08 | +0.71 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 13:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Boone Jenner C | 18:17 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.07 | +0.38 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 14:54 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:20 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 18:23 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 13:05 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 16:31 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 21:33 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.22 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 11:18 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 22:10 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 23:43 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 13:04 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 18:44 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Foudy C | 13:00 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Berni D | 14:40 | −0.42 | +0.05 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 62:07 | −2.36 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Jensen D | 22:12 | 2 | +1.49 | −0.19 | +1.64 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 13:30 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.04 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 10:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.06 | +0.80 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:30 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.05 | +0.66 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 16:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.22 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 18:19 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Gabriel Carlsson D | 12:50 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 24:13 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 19:08 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.14 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 12:37 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 25:29 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 11:45 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 21:54 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 13:02 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:58 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 14:59 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Matt Irwin D | 14:16 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 17:43 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.06 | −0.45 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 62:43 | −3.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.