CAR beat NYR 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 2.8, NYR 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Teuvo Teravainen scored at 17:27 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 49% to 92%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:00 | NYR | Tyler Motte from Barclay Goodrow, Jimmy Vesey | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 9:49 | CAR | Jalen Chatfield from Derek Stepan, Jack Drury | 1–1 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 10:20 | NYR | Kaapo Kakko from Ryan Lindgren, Adam Fox | 1–2 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 10:38 | CAR | Stefan Noesen from Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 17:27 | CAR | Teuvo Teravainen from Brent Burns, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 3–2 | 49% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Chatfield D | 13:15 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.13 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 15:36 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 15:58 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.09 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 22:04 | +0.25 | +0.25 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 21:41 | +0.04 | +0.22 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 14:27 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 9:30 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 8:41 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 16:45 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 10:26 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 15:50 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 23:25 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:31 | −0.28 | −0.24 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 13:15 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:36 | −0.33 | −0.18 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 16:09 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:03 | −0.43 | +0.07 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +0.54 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Motte C | 10:19 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.02 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 13:31 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.05 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 21:03 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 18:10 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 18:33 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:46 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 15:35 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 16:46 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 18:03 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 16:13 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 11:37 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 16:32 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 16:24 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:02 | −0.25 | +0.13 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 16:43 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:12 | −0.28 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:02 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 17:44 | −0.49 | −0.05 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 58:45 | +0.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.