EDM beat SJS 5–4 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 7.1 to 3.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Darnell Nurse scored at 4:45 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%. James Reimer saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:48 | SJS | Alexander Barabanov from Tomas Hertl, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:08 |  EDM | Nick Bjugstad from Warren Foegele, Mattias Janmark | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 0:30 | EDM | Kailer Yamamoto from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 8:32 | SJS | Steven Lorentz from Andrew Agozzino, Matt Benning | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 10:23 | SJS | Erik Karlsson from Fabian Zetterlund, Logan Couture | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 11:48 | EDM | Mattias Ekholm from Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 14:23 | SJS | Erik Karlsson from Alexander Barabanov, Martin Kaut | 4–3 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 16:13 | EDM | Mattias Ekholm from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 4–4 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 4:45 | EDM | Darnell Nurse from Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:57 | 2 | +0.90 | −0.31 | +1.29 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 10:11 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.33 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 20:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.58 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Andrew Agozzino L | 10:46 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 14:03 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 18:45 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 19:01 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 13:51 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 12:55 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 10:48 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 12:06 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derrick Pouliot D | 17:59 | −0.36 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 15:35 | −0.38 | −0.11 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Martin Kaut R | 18:11 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:35 | −0.67 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 23:06 | 1 | −0.91 | −0.60 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.13 | |
| Matt Benning D | 22:23 | 1 | −0.92 | −0.89 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:24 | 1 | −1.54 | −0.48 | −0.80 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 64:45 | +2.05 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:28 | 2 | +1.95 | +0.39 | +1.53 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 20:05 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.65 | +0.50 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:34 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.07 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 26:01 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.76 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 24:40 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.19 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 28:06 | 2 | +0.29 | +0.87 | −0.83 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 13:48 | +0.25 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:11 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 15:20 | +0.11 | +0.22 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 9:17 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 26:16 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.82 | −0.99 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 20:39 | −0.01 | +0.60 | −0.60 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 13:27 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.22 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 8:47 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Devin Shore C | 5:59 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 7:57 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:33 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.76 | −1.18 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Evander Kane L | 17:26 | −0.75 | −0.23 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Campbell G | 64:45 | −0.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.