ARI beat CHI 4–2. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Juuso Välimäki scored on the power play at 16:48 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 51% to 91%. Alex Stalock allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:35 | CHI | Jujhar Khaira from Jarred Tinordi, Boris Katchouk | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 17:48 | ARI | Barrett Hayton from Clayton Keller, Juuso Välimäki | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 4:14 | CHI | Caleb JonesPP unassisted | 2–1 | 49% → 75% |
| P3 6:00 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Juuso Välimäki, Travis Boyd | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 16:48 | ARI | Juuso VälimäkiPP from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 2–3 | 51% → 91% |
| P3 19:21 | ARI | Matias MaccelliEN from Jack McBain, J.J. Moser | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Jones D | 19:39 | 1 | +1.00 | −0.05 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jujhar Khaira L | 15:31 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.18 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 17:24 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 14:33 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Buddy Robinson R | 11:43 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 17:18 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 19:20 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hardman L | 8:39 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 12:50 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 16:11 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 17:15 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 17:07 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joey Anderson R | 13:08 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 16:40 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 16:10 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 20:00 | −0.25 | +0.18 | −0.54 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 23:39 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 18:52 | −0.86 | +0.05 | −0.72 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Stalock G | 58:01 | −1.02 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 21:34 | 1 | 2 | +1.03 | +0.25 | +0.77 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:52 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.15 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 22:47 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | +0.27 | +0.46 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Victor Soderstrom D | 17:25 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 21:52 | +0.15 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:02 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 23:28 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 14:42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 9:19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 9:32 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 8:41 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:46 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.25 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jack McBain C | 16:20 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 16:45 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 16:16 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 15:09 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 12:25 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 11:09 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Prosvetov G | 59:53 | +0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.