TOR beat CAR 5–2. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Zachary Aston-Reese scored at 2:54 of the first, moving TOR’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Pyotr Kochetkov allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:54 | TOR | Zachary Aston-Reese from Erik Gustafsson, Calle Jarnkrok | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:30 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Michael Bunting, John Tavares | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 14:37 |  CAR | Brady Skjei from Jordan Martinook, Brett Pesce | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 17:38 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from John Tavares, Morgan Rielly | 1–3 | 72% → 85% |
| P2 10:45 | CAR | Martin Necas from Teuvo Teravainen, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 2–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 14:59 | TOR | Zachary Aston-Reese from Sam Lafferty | 2–4 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 8:56 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Calle Jarnkrok, TJ Brodie | 2–5 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei D | 18:29 | 1 | +1.07 | −0.01 | +0.91 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 17:38 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:12 | +0.25 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 24:28 | +0.17 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:52 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 16:00 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 14:45 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 10:36 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 19:50 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 13:18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:34 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 14:12 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 17:15 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 17:51 | −0.26 | +0.13 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 17:46 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.44 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 13:28 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 17:43 | −0.40 | +0.08 | −0.45 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 13:22 | −0.45 | +0.05 | −0.49 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 60:00 | −2.47 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 13:38 | 2 | +1.53 | +0.03 | +1.48 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 20:43 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.02 | +0.86 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 17:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Auston Matthews C | 18:57 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.08 | +0.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 21:04 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 16:34 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 16:14 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 19:13 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:14 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 15:13 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 13:56 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 5:39 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:46 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 16:25 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 17:52 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| William Nylander R | 17:32 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 17:35 | −0.49 | −0.05 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 16:08 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.20 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:00 | +0.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.