SEA beat SJS 2–1 in overtime. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vince Dunn scored at 1:58 of overtime, moving SEA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Philipp Grubauer saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 1:18 | SJS | William EklundPP unassisted | 0–1 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 7:03 |  SEA | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Yanni Gourde, Adam Larsson | 1–1 | 19% → 48% |
| OT 1:58 | SEA | Vince Dunn from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jared McCann | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Dunn D | 26:04 | 1 | +1.24 | +0.52 | +0.68 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 18:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.27 | +0.43 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Larsson D | 23:14 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.22 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:19 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 7:37 | +0.12 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 16:52 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 16:38 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Hayden C | 6:32 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 18:30 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:48 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 12:38 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 15:46 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 20:39 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.31 | −0.77 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 21:53 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 16:48 | −0.28 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:01 | −0.28 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 9:34 | −0.60 | −0.13 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 16:44 | −0.63 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 61:37 | +1.84 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Eklund L | 20:40 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.19 | +0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 16:22 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 20:46 | +0.06 | +0.22 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Derrick Pouliot D | 18:56 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 1:34 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 20:20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 17:03 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:01 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 14:48 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 8:53 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 14:18 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 14:19 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 15:28 | −0.30 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 9:14 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:56 | −0.53 | −0.17 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 22:15 | −0.56 | −0.23 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 12:13 | −0.65 | −0.24 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 61:38 | +0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.