ARI beat VAN 3–2. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Travis Boyd scored on the power play at 12:44 of the second, moving ARI’s win probability from 54% to 75%. Ivan Prosvetov saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:14 | VAN | Andrei Kuzmenko from Anthony Beauvillier, Elias Pettersson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 19:30 | ARI | Travis Boyd from Liam O'Brien | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 12:44 | ARI | Travis BoydPP from Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton | 1–2 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 1:19 | ARI | Lawson CrousePP from Victor Soderstrom, Matias Maccelli | 1–3 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 11:41 | VAN | Elias Pettersson from Anthony Beauvillier, Conor Garland | 2–3 | 3% → 15% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 23:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.19 | +0.37 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 20:14 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.19 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 17:05 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 9:39 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:25 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 13:51 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 19:51 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 15:01 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Sheldon Dries C | 11:18 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Guillaume Brisebois D | 15:51 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 10:02 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 20:37 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vitali Kravtsov R | 12:39 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Wolanin D | 17:40 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 28:56 | −0.30 | +0.15 | −0.47 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:55 | 2 | −0.31 | +0.08 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 13:48 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 22:46 | −0.49 | +0.14 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 57:57 | −0.98 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Boyd C | 15:27 | 2 | +1.40 | −0.09 | +1.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:31 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.07 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:39 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.10 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:31 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:03 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Ritchie R | 19:00 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 22:36 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bokondji Imama L | 8:31 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 9:00 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Mackey D | 15:16 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 24:29 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 18:27 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 18:37 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 15:19 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 15:39 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 7:53 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 21:56 | −0.42 | +0.05 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:27 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.14 | −0.66 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Prosvetov G | 59:39 | +1.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.