CBJ beat SJS 6–5 in overtime. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 3.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Johnny Gaudreau scored at 4:17 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Daniil Tarasov allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:00 | SJS | Alexander BarabanovPP from Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 12:27 | CBJ | Johnny Gaudreau from Patrik Laine, Gavin Bayreuther | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 1:53 | CBJ | Kent JohnsonPP from Johnny Gaudreau, Daniil Tarasov | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 5:28 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Johnny Gaudreau, Gavin Bayreuther | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 10:24 | SJS | William Eklund from Derrick Pouliot, Tomas Hertl | 3–2 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 17:17 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Johnny Gaudreau | 4–2 | 71% → 88% |
| P2 19:59 | SJS | Logan Couture from Erik Karlsson, Derrick Pouliot | 4–3 | 11% → 27% |
| P3 2:20 | CBJ | Liam Foudy from Mathieu Olivier, Nick Blankenburg | 5–3 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 5:53 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from Matt Benning, Fabian Zetterlund | 5–4 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 11:20 | SJS | Nikolai Knyzhov from Logan Couture, Alexander Barabanov | 5–5 | 19% → 52% |
| OT 4:17 | CBJ | Johnny Gaudreau from Patrik Laine | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 20:36 | 2 | 3 | +1.87 | +0.40 | +1.33 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Boone Jenner C | 20:30 | 2 | +1.21 | +0.09 | +1.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Liam Foudy C | 15:05 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.17 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 12:33 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.08 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Blankenburg D | 21:02 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.27 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 24:26 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 18:11 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Bemstrom C | 16:43 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 12:05 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 20:33 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 13:04 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 21:41 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:31 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 10:58 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.11 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 12:05 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Tim Berni D | 12:54 | −0.26 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:23 | −0.26 | +0.19 | −0.65 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 19:25 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.40 | −0.73 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 64:17 | −1.42 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Labanc R | 14:02 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.08 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.03 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 19:36 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.10 | +0.90 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 20:29 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | −0.12 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| William Eklund L | 21:41 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.17 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 13:48 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Derrick Pouliot D | 17:17 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 13:38 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 15:55 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 19:01 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 19:11 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 12:52 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 11:46 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Johnsson L | 15:48 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 8:20 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:50 | 2 | −0.51 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 9:54 | −0.52 | +0.02 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 33:46 | 1 | −0.89 | −0.10 | −0.50 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 64:17 | −1.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.