MTL beat PIT 6–4. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 4.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Anthony Richard scored at 3:05 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 74%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:21 |  PIT | Jake Guentzel from Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:49 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel | 0–2 | 70% → 82% |
| P1 5:21 | MTL | Mike Hoffman from Rem Pitlick, Justin Barron | 1–2 | 18% → 31% |
| P1 7:13 | MTL | Jesse Ylonen from Mike Matheson, Rafael Harvey-Pinard | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 11:31 | MTL | Denis Gurianov from Alex Belzile, Jonathan Drouin | 3–2 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 19:49 | MTL | Joel Edmundson from Johnathan Kovacevic, Jonathan Drouin | 4–2 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 10:57 | PIT | Kris Letang from Marcus Pettersson, Rickard Rakell | 4–3 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 18:05 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang | 4–4 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 3:05 | MTL | Anthony Richard from Justin Barron, Joel Edmundson | 5–4 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 19:25 | MTL | Josh AndersonEN unassisted | 6–4 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.09 | +0.91 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anthony Richard C | 7:21 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.06 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 13:07 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.21 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 16:11 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.03 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 14:31 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.20 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Savard D | 23:52 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 8:02 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 20:01 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 8:52 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:51 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 17:43 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 20:36 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rem Pitlick C | 14:43 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 13:14 | 2 | −0.41 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 18:52 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 24:00 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.40 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Belzile R | 15:11 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.38 | −0.04 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:40 | −0.67 | −0.43 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | +0.93 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:02 | 2 | 1 | +1.29 | +0.32 | +0.98 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kris Letang D | 26:00 | 1 | 2 | +1.02 | +0.33 | +0.67 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.03 | +0.65 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:15 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.37 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 24:09 | +0.21 | +0.30 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 19:37 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.35 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 23:14 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.44 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 14:52 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 17:39 | +0.07 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Nylander L | 14:16 | +0.07 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:03 | +0.07 | +0.19 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 6:23 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 9:24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:43 | −0.07 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:18 | −0.27 | +0.11 | −0.59 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 5:53 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 8:28 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:47 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.22 | −0.74 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 38:31 | +0.01 |
| Tristan Jarry G | 20:00 | −3.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.