NSH beat ANA 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 3.3, ANA 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tommy Novak scored at 1:12 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. John Gibson allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:01 |  NSH | Philip TomasinoPP from Dante Fabbro, Colton Sissons | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:40 | NSH | Tommy Novak from Roman Josi | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 15:44 |  ANA | Mason McTavish from Max Jones | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 4:46 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Cam Fowler, Jakob Silfverberg | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 1:47 | NSH | Kiefer Sherwood from Tommy Novak, Roman Josi | 3–2 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 13:36 | NSH | Yakov Trenin from Cole Smith, Colton Sissons | 4–2 | 84% → 98% |
| P3 17:39 | ANA | Troy TerryPP from Colton White, Cam Fowler | 4–3 | 0% → 8% |
| P3 19:34 | ANA | Mason McTavishPP from Cam Fowler, Trevor Zegras | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 1:12 | NSH | Tommy Novak from Philip Tomasino | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Novak C | 17:54 | 2 | 1 | +1.45 | +0.27 | +1.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.03 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Tomasino C | 17:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.11 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Yakov Trenin C | 16:12 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.19 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 20:28 | +0.21 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 16:03 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:17 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 8:18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Afanasyev L | 10:11 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:06 | 2 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 23:20 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 23:54 | 2 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 21:35 | −0.25 | +0.11 | −0.39 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 15:14 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 19:10 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 16:08 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 17:13 | −0.44 | −0.11 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 12:24 | −0.44 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 61:12 | −0.51 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 18:18 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.27 | +1.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 13:17 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.83 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 20:40 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.06 | +0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 15:37 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 29:33 | 3 | +0.10 | +0.25 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 22:17 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Harrington D | 20:28 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 13:56 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 14:43 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxime Comtois L | 14:19 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 11:05 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 20:54 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 14:40 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Leason R | 9:39 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 12:51 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton White D | 16:47 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 15:33 | −0.46 | −0.13 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 19:31 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.11 | −0.59 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:19 | −1.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.