ARI beat MIN 5–4 in overtime. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored at 4:09 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:28 | ARI | Barrett Hayton from Juuso Välimäki, Brett Ritchie | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:32 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Jake Middleton, Jared Spurgeon | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 12:00 | ARI | Barrett HaytonPP from Brett Ritchie, Travis Boyd | 1–2 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 18:35 | MIN | Ryan Reaves from Mason Shaw, Connor Dewar | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:50 | MIN | Matt Boldy from John Klingberg | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 14:59 | MIN | Connor Dewar from Mason Shaw, Ryan Reaves | 4–2 | 70% → 87% |
| P2 18:48 | ARI | Brett Ritchie from Clayton Keller, Victor Soderstrom | 4–3 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 12:06 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Jack McBain, Barrett Hayton | 4–4 | 18% → 51% |
| OT 4:09 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Barrett Hayton, Juuso Välimäki | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Boldy L | 21:01 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.14 | +0.30 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 10:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.10 | +0.32 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mason Shaw C | 13:17 | 2 | +0.37 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Dewar C | 12:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.09 | +0.20 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake Middleton D | 18:28 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 16:30 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 20:33 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 20:16 | +0.15 | +0.18 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 15:21 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 8:47 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:59 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.17 | +0.35 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 18:13 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 19:37 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 15:03 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 24:59 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:13 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:20 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:07 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 64:09 | −2.62 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Hayton C | 22:59 | 2 | 2 | +1.50 | +0.39 | +0.59 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 |
| Clayton Keller R | 23:19 | 2 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.32 | +0.70 | +0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brett Ritchie R | 18:59 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.07 | +0.36 | +0.24 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Joshua Brown D | 20:13 | +0.32 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 24:59 | 2 | +0.29 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 22:48 | +0.08 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 22:33 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bokondji Imama L | 4:06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 5:52 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:18 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 10:27 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 15:55 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 15:50 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 20:38 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Milos Kelemen L | 6:03 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 19:57 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 21:47 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 17:44 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 64:09 | −0.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.