DAL beat SEA 4–3 in overtime. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Miro Heiskanen scored at 3:26 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:51 |  DAL | Roope Hintz from Esa Lindell, Jani Hakanpää | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:41 |  SEA | Jordan Eberle from Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 10:29 | DAL | Mason Marchment from Ryan Suter, Ty Dellandrea | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 10:03 | SEA | Ryan Donato from Daniel Sprong, Carson Soucy | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 16:35 | SEA | Oliver BjorkstrandPP from Alexander Wennberg, Vince Dunn | 2–3 | 52% → 91% |
| P3 18:50 | DAL | Joe PavelskiPP from Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 3:26 | DAL | Miro Heiskanen from Max Domi, Evgenii Dadonov | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miro Heiskanen D | 27:57 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.50 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Roope Hintz C | 18:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.47 | +0.55 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:45 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.35 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 16:46 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.08 | +0.71 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 14:32 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 12:33 | +0.14 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 23:23 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 19:16 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 25:06 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:30 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 17:10 | +0.03 | +0.16 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 17:54 | +0.02 | +0.29 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 10:17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 14:04 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 8:50 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 16:17 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Colin Miller D | 14:59 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 17:46 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 62:30 | −0.70 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Donato C | 9:43 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.04 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:01 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.03 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 18:48 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.09 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 23:05 | +0.21 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 14:12 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 26:16 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 17:51 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesper Froden R | 11:46 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 10:22 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 16:05 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:04 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 16:33 | −0.26 | −0.41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:47 | −0.34 | −0.22 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 19:43 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 18:22 | −0.41 | −0.30 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:26 | −0.47 | −0.44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:03 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.19 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 20:11 | −0.63 | −0.41 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 63:26 | −1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.