FLA beat CHI 4–3 in overtime. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Montour scored at 2:43 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:49 | CHI | Caleb Jones from Taylor Raddysh, Tyler Johnson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:53 | CHI | Boris Katchouk from Joey Anderson, Jujhar Khaira | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P3 8:29 | FLA | Sam Bennett from Matthew Tkachuk, Eetu Luostarinen | 2–1 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 8:58 | FLA | Sam ReinhartPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour | 2–2 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 12:42 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Matthew Tkachuk, Marc Staal | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 19:15 | CHI | Cole GuttmanPP from Jujhar Khaira, Jason Dickinson | 3–3 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 2:43 | FLA | Brandon Montour from Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Jones D | 24:23 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.20 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Guttman C | 17:55 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.08 | +0.75 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Boris Katchouk L | 14:29 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.12 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Roos D | 12:22 | +0.41 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 15:19 | +0.15 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joey Anderson R | 12:07 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 4:28 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 16:33 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 17:55 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 16:23 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 18:17 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.24 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 18:32 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 18:08 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 12:54 | 2 | −0.39 | +0.08 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 19:18 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.22 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 28:09 | −0.59 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 17:15 | −0.60 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 19:36 | −0.64 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 60:36 | +0.47 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:34 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.27 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:36 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.11 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.38 | −0.06 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.30 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 25:39 | +0.21 | +0.31 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:14 | +0.13 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 10:46 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 4:48 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 3:12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 15:54 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 18:28 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.10 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 23:04 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.27 | −0.38 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:29 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Eric Staal C | 15:06 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 19:45 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:48 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 22:52 | 3 | −0.34 | +0.34 | −0.75 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 13:49 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 7:34 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 62:25 | −0.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.