ARI beat NSH 4–1. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brett Ritchie scored at 8:45 of the first, moving ARI’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Ivan Prosvetov saved 3.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:45 | ARI | Brett Ritchie from J.J. Moser, Christian Fischer | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 11:41 | ARI | Barrett HaytonPP from Clayton Keller, Travis Boyd | 0–2 | 85% → 97% |
| P3 12:30 | ARI | Jack McBain from Lawson Crouse, Matias Maccelli | 0–3 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 18:00 |  NSH | Cody GlassPP from Matt Duchene, Luke Evangelista | 1–3 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 19:23 | ARI | Nick SchmaltzEN from Patrik Nemeth, Clayton Keller | 1–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Smith L | 10:37 | +0.24 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 16:03 | +0.17 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:48 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 13:30 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 21:19 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.26 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.38 | +0.12 | |
| Michael McCarron C | 9:25 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Cal Foote D | 13:25 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Leonard L | 7:25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:15 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 25:58 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 17:34 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.30 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 23:08 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 20:27 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Asplund C | 7:09 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 21:37 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:03 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:11 | −0.49 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 30:17 | −0.51 | +0.00 | −0.56 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 55:22 | +1.09 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Ritchie R | 10:06 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:15 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.04 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 15:29 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jack McBain C | 16:18 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.07 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Victor Soderstrom D | 15:04 | +0.08 | +0.20 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 19:41 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 8:43 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 9:24 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 23:47 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 21:47 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 16:56 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 23:16 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 12:32 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Mackey D | 12:57 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.38 | +0.00 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 10:54 | −0.45 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:38 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.38 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 17:36 | 2 | −0.61 | +0.04 | −0.68 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:39 | 1 | −0.86 | +0.02 | −0.85 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Prosvetov G | 59:58 | +3.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.