CGY beat MIN 1–0 in a shootout. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. Jacob Markstrom saved 4.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 14:47 | +0.97 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.99 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:37 | +0.85 | +0.07 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 22:48 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:45 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:26 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.39 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 10:02 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:04 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:39 | −0.30 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:36 | −0.30 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 14:02 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 14:49 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 12:02 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:20 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:38 | −0.42 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 13:26 | −0.44 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 11:00 | −0.47 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:35 | −0.69 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 21:24 | −0.81 | −0.20 | −0.56 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 65:00 | +4.72 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 18:57 | +0.96 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 17:02 | +0.35 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 8:30 | +0.20 | +0.15 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:46 | +0.14 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 23:20 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 15:37 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:47 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 23:09 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Shaw C | 10:10 | −0.05 | +0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 18:50 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:59 | −0.15 | +0.15 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:56 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:15 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 19:01 | −0.32 | +0.13 | −0.43 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:11 | −0.54 | +0.13 | −0.40 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:53 | −0.58 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 20:19 | −0.73 | +0.21 | −0.47 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.51 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:18 | −0.77 | +0.21 | −0.64 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 65:00 | +1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.