NYI beat BUF 3–2. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Hudson Fasching scored at 7:37 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:00 |  BUF | Dylan Cozens unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 12:38 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Hudson Fasching, Alexander Romanov | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 1:51 | NYI | Josh Bailey from Casey Cizikas, Alexander Romanov | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 4:59 | BUF | Kyle Okposo from Owen Power, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 7:37 | NYI | Hudson Fasching from Josh Bailey, Otto Koivula | 2–3 | 52% → 81% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Okposo R | 14:43 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.26 | +0.90 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 17:58 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.23 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 12:14 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 18:15 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 10:36 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 16:36 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kale Clague D | 14:05 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 11:53 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:31 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 14:26 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 22:14 | −0.23 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 14:31 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:59 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 14:13 | −0.32 | −0.09 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:01 | −0.32 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 16:59 | −0.47 | −0.29 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 17:48 | −0.51 | −0.08 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:30 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.34 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 57:28 | +1.04 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bailey R | 11:38 | 1 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.21 | +0.79 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Casey Cizikas C | 17:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.25 | +0.58 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Hudson Fasching R | 13:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.36 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:05 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.09 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 22:03 | +0.17 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 19:15 | +0.16 | +0.37 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 17:36 | +0.14 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 22:40 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 12:00 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 18:59 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.30 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 17:04 | +0.02 | +0.29 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 11:35 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Otto Koivula L | 4:35 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Parise L | 15:46 | −0.10 | +0.31 | −0.62 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:05 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:24 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:17 | −0.20 | +0.28 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 19:42 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 59:20 | +0.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.