SJS beat WPG 3–2 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Logan Couture scored at 1:21 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. James Reimer saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:13 | SJS | Steven Lorentz from Oskar Lindblom, Kevin Labanc | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 6:05 | WPG | Nino Niederreiter from Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 14:53 | WPG | Nate Schmidt from Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler | 1–2 | 52% → 88% |
| P3 19:49 | SJS | Tomas HertlPP from Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture | 2–2 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 1:21 | SJS | Logan Couture from Erik Karlsson | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Couture C | 23:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.21 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:23 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.17 | +0.23 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.13 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:42 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.12 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 5:31 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:23 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 11:33 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:44 | −0.04 | +0.25 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:42 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.23 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 15:45 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 13:46 | −0.12 | +0.23 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 26:03 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 16:23 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 11:49 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 20:37 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 1:55 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Knyzhov D | 14:19 | −0.32 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 11:06 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 15:20 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 59:43 | +2.01 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nino Niederreiter R | 19:08 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.06 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Schmidt D | 15:05 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.21 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Saku Maenalanen R | 5:57 | +0.26 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 16:47 | +0.22 | +0.21 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 10:56 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 20:40 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:56 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 9:31 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 12:27 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 23:27 | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 29:31 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 23:22 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 10:29 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 9:56 | −0.33 | +0.12 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 17:07 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.19 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 14:57 | 1 | −0.58 | +0.17 | −0.78 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 23:28 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.07 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 17:26 | −0.62 | −0.02 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 61:14 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.