NJD beat ARI 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 3.1, ARI 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nico Hischier scored at 0:23 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Vitek Vanecek allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:09 | NJD | Timo Meier from Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:19 |  ARI | Matias Maccelli from Jack McBain, Victor Soderstrom | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 18:18 | NJD | Jesper Boqvist from Damon Severson, Erik Haula | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:44 | NJD | Damon SeversonPP from Dawson Mercer, Erik Haula | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 16:23 | ARI | Zack Kassian from Liam O'Brien, Connor Mackey | 3–2 | 13% → 29% |
| P2 19:19 | NJD | Jesper Boqvist from Ondrej Palat | 4–2 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 1:29 | ARI | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller, Juuso Välimäki | 4–3 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 18:00 | ARI | Jack McBain from Juuso Välimäki, Lawson Crouse | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 0:23 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Dougie Hamilton | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:19 | 2 | +1.49 | +0.10 | +1.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 19:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.08 | +0.74 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Timo Meier R | 15:57 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 19:09 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.02 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Erik Haula L | 13:41 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.30 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 17:34 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 21:20 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 21:59 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 20:58 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 17:34 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:06 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.17 | −0.36 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 11:15 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 16:32 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 15:27 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 11:55 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 9:53 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 18:02 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:20 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.04 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 60:23 | −1.44 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Maccelli L | 16:40 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.15 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:24 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.16 | +0.88 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jack McBain C | 17:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.11 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zack Kassian R | 6:23 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.08 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.J. Moser D | 24:44 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 15:26 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Mackey D | 13:33 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Soderstrom D | 14:38 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.15 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 15:56 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 19:17 | −0.06 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.01 | ||
| Jean-Sebastien Dea C | 10:23 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 23:56 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Laurent Dauphin C | 9:56 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Joshua Brown D | 18:48 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 22:31 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:14 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:16 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 20:48 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.11 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 60:23 | −1.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.