OTT beat CBJ 5–2. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tim Stützle scored at 11:18 of the first, moving OTT’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:17 |  OTT | Travis Hamonic from Mathieu Joseph, Jake Sanderson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 5:35 | CBJ | Jack Roslovic unassisted | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 11:18 | OTT | Tim Stützle from Brady Tkachuk, Jakob Chychrun | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 2:16 | OTT | Travis HamonicPP from Alex DeBrincat, Jake Sanderson | 1–3 | 73% → 86% |
| P2 3:04 | OTT | Jakob Chychrun from Erik Brannstrom, Julien Gauthier | 1–4 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 10:56 | CBJ | Patrik LainePP from Kirill Marchenko | 2–4 | 4% → 11% |
| P3 12:07 | OTT | Tim StützleSH from Mathieu Joseph | 2–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:18 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.18 | +0.85 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 16:50 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.12 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:58 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 18:18 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 22:26 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 6:58 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 15:36 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 19:45 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:50 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Foudy C | 10:33 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 21:14 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 16:10 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 21:05 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 15:11 | −0.28 | −0.18 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Berni D | 16:13 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 17:20 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 17:38 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 7:37 | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Hutchinson G | 36:56 | +0.44 |
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 23:04 | −2.00 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Hamonic D | 17:27 | 2 | +1.50 | +0.12 | +1.40 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 20:56 | 2 | +1.29 | +0.09 | +1.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 18:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.14 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Claude Giroux R | 18:05 | +0.33 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 18:40 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 17:59 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.16 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 9:49 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 20:46 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 13:48 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Gambrell C | 13:14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 16:12 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 10:58 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:49 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:35 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 9:16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 10:30 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 15:42 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 18:23 | −0.27 | +0.13 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 59:47 | −0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.