VGK beat NJD 4–3 in a shootout. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 6.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Miles Wood scored at 12:53 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 14% to 49%. Adin Hill saved 4.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:48 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Brayden McNabb, Ivan Barbashev | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:16 | NJD | Jesper BrattPP from Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:32 | NJD | Dawson Mercer unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 12:50 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 3:47 | VGK | Jack Eichel from Jonathan Marchessault | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 12:53 | NJD | Miles Wood from Jesper Boqvist | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Severson D | 18:11 | +0.92 | +1.14 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 14:06 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.12 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 25:23 | +0.51 | +0.51 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 14:54 | +0.48 | +0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 24:01 | +0.37 | +0.40 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:47 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.56 | +0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:15 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.34 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 21:40 | +0.06 | +0.74 | −0.89 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 17:39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 15:07 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 21:52 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.62 | −0.71 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:15 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 10:00 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 16:46 | −0.17 | +0.62 | −0.47 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 11:31 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:07 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:07 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.75 | −0.65 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 14:31 | −0.51 | −0.04 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 64:48 | +0.57 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore D | 19:56 | +0.53 | −0.59 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.99 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 22:44 | 2 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.88 | +1.22 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:43 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:47 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 16:35 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 5:08 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 14:47 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 9:35 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 20:03 | −0.44 | −0.50 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 21:27 | −0.45 | −0.46 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 20:51 | 2 | −0.51 | −0.01 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 9:53 | −0.52 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:42 | −0.53 | −0.33 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 26:31 | −0.65 | −0.59 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 17:31 | −0.68 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.51 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:43 | −0.70 | −0.61 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 16:56 | −0.76 | −0.05 | −0.75 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 23:03 | 1 | 1 | −0.94 | −1.11 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 65:00 | +4.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.