STL beat SJS 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (STL 2.5, SJS 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Logan Brown scored at 9:30 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 47% to 68%. James Reimer allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:50 |  SJS | Alexander Barabanov from Andreas Johnsson, Mario Ferraro | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:31 | SJS | Logan Couture from Erik Karlsson, Alexander Barabanov | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 2:35 | STL | Colton Parayko from Nikita Alexandrov, Josh Leivo | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 5:21 | STL | Jordan KyrouPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Torey Krug | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 9:30 | STL | Logan Brown from Pavel Buchnevich, Colton Parayko | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 19:00 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich | 4–2 | 73% → 89% |
| P3 6:36 | SJS | Steven LorentzSH from Matt Benning | 4–3 | 6% → 22% |
| P3 14:52 | STL | Tyler Pitlick from Nikita Alexandrov | 5–3 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 17:03 | STL | Kasperi KapanenEN from Pavel Buchnevich, Brayden Schenn | 6–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Pitlick C | 13:41 | 1 | +0.98 | −0.01 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 22:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.21 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Brown C | 13:55 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.04 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.05 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.10 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Leddy D | 23:37 | +0.41 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 17:35 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:35 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 12:05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 11:05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Alexandrov C | 14:23 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 21:49 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:59 | 4 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 15:26 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:23 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 20:00 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:19 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 11:56 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 60:00 | −0.56 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Lorentz C | 12:49 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 15:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.07 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Logan Couture C | 17:10 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.05 | +0.41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:49 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 10:48 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 12:44 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 12:00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 20:58 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 12:20 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:47 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:14 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob MacDonald D | 15:29 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 17:17 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 10:33 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 18:29 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radim Simek D | 14:04 | −0.30 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 19:48 | −0.40 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:32 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 59:09 | −2.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.