MTL beat SJS 3–1. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jesse Ylonen scored at 9:59 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 80%. Jake Allen saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:43 | SJS | Jacob MacDonald unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P3 8:07 | MTL | Kaiden Guhle unassisted | 1–1 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 9:59 | MTL | Jesse Ylonen from Rem Pitlick, Christian Dvorak | 2–1 | 48% → 80% |
| P3 19:55 | MTL | Christian DvorakEN from Nick Suzuki, Josh Anderson | 3–1 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Ylonen R | 13:06 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.03 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 18:27 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 17:12 | +0.27 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 22:46 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:13 | 1 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Mike Matheson D | 23:58 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 16:54 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Belzile R | 9:21 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 8:54 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 17:12 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 9:04 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 15:50 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 14:25 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:48 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.09 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 16:35 | −0.35 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Denis Gurianov R | 17:02 | −0.57 | +0.21 | −0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 19:16 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.14 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 59:50 | +2.79 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob MacDonald D | 16:31 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:06 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:33 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:06 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 19:30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 19:32 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 14:25 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:47 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 15:59 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:22 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 13:21 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 9:20 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 11:06 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 17:40 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:22 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 9:58 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Johnsson L | 16:33 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:11 | −0.72 | −0.15 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 57:38 | +0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.