BOS beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 6.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Charlie McAvoy scored at 4:55 of overtime, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Linus Ullmark saved 3.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:47 |  BOS | Dmitry Orlov from Hampus Lindholm, Tomas Nosek | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:39 | BOS | Dmitry Orlov from Jake DeBrusk, Patrice Bergeron | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 1:07 |  CGY | Blake Coleman from Rasmus Andersson | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P3 8:16 | CGY | Dillon Dube from Tyler Toffoli, Chris Tanev | 2–2 | 22% → 52% |
| P3 9:33 | CGY | Jonathan Huberdeau from Nazem Kadri, Jakob Pelletier | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 14:07 | BOS | Pavel ZachaPP from Dmitry Orlov, Jake DeBrusk | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 4:55 | BOS | Charlie McAvoy from Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:27 | 2 | 1 | +1.17 | −0.35 | +1.73 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 23:52 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.12 | +0.63 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Clifton D | 17:02 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 19:31 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.44 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 11:16 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:05 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 17:48 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.32 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 8:02 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 18:59 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 19:55 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 24:14 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.42 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 13:34 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 9:08 | −0.31 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 13:56 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| David Krejci C | 19:17 | −0.41 | −0.27 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 17:51 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.20 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 15:53 | −0.70 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:27 | −0.94 | −0.64 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 64:23 | +3.49 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Coleman L | 12:23 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.42 | +0.42 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 14:50 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.12 | +0.61 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:26 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.17 | +0.25 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 19:28 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 24:12 | +0.32 | +0.43 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 15:08 | +0.25 | +0.32 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 10:13 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:28 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Walker Duehr R | 12:11 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:02 | −0.13 | +0.49 | −0.69 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jakob Pelletier L | 14:34 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.23 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 26:57 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.20 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 18:03 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 11:58 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:14 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 24:20 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:02 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.32 | −0.78 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:56 | 1 | −0.56 | +0.17 | −0.76 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 43:29 | +0.16 |
| Dan Vladar G | 20:00 | −1.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.