MIN beat CBJ 3–2 in overtime. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kirill Kaprizov scored at 4:40 of overtime, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Elvis Merzlikins saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:20 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Eric Robinson | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 3:04 | CBJ | Liam Foudy from Erik Gudbranson, Emil Bemstrom | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P3 1:15 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Hartman | 2–1 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 6:00 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| OT 4:40 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Calen Addison, Mats Zuccarello | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:49 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.22 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Foudy C | 9:43 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.05 | +0.65 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Berni D | 16:25 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 26:55 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Billy Sweezey D | 10:01 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 10:30 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 12:10 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 9:58 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 21:01 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 14:40 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 22:10 | −0.23 | −0.31 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 16:18 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 18:56 | −0.35 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 20:35 | −0.36 | −0.21 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 27:04 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 15:45 | −0.47 | −0.20 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 17:27 | −0.53 | −0.22 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 25:42 | −0.60 | −0.32 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 64:40 | +1.40 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 25:36 | 3 | +2.33 | +0.40 | +1.66 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 25:25 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.41 | −0.20 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 18:57 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.26 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 12:48 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 23:16 | +0.08 | +0.21 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 18:02 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 11:56 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 18:16 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 24:05 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.27 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:55 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:16 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:36 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 20:06 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Shaw C | 9:10 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 10:06 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 16:41 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.15 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:10 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.16 | −0.49 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 20:39 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.21 | −0.42 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 64:40 | −0.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.