PIT beat STL 3–2 in overtime. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 5.1 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Bryan Rust scored at 1:16 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jordan Binnington saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:23 |  STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 6:59 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Bryan Rust, Marcus Pettersson | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 14:32 | PIT | Marcus Pettersson from Teddy Blueger, Drew O'Connor | 2–1 | 49% → 86% |
| P3 17:33 | STL | Justin Faulk from Alexey Toropchenko, Sammy Blais | 2–2 | 8% → 51% |
| OT 1:16 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Evgeni Malkin, Jeff Petry | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:13 | 1 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.01 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.47 | +0.25 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Bryan Rust R | 15:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.26 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kris Letang D | 24:25 | +0.29 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 13:00 | +0.20 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 23:02 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.33 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:53 | +0.15 | +0.25 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 16:06 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 11:32 | +0.08 | +0.25 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:38 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 13:45 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 11:17 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 23:54 | −0.10 | +0.29 | −0.36 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:42 | −0.12 | +0.30 | −0.50 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 14:15 | −0.13 | +0.19 | −0.36 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 8:28 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 12:32 | −0.26 | +0.16 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:09 | −0.79 | +0.26 | −1.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 61:16 | +0.63 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Faulk D | 23:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.03 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 22:35 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.19 | +0.69 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 10:20 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:43 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 8:02 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 14:30 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 15:09 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 10:00 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 11:42 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:15 | −0.26 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 18:54 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 18:58 | −0.39 | −0.42 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:32 | −0.43 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 20:18 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.20 | −0.34 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Torey Krug D | 19:13 | −0.46 | −0.39 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 24:11 | −0.53 | −0.51 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 19:43 | −0.67 | −0.00 | −0.62 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 20:58 | −0.90 | −0.53 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 61:16 | +2.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.