BOS beat SEA 6–5. Expected goals were close to even (BOS 3.7, SEA 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jake DeBrusk scored at 18:22 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:40 |  SEA | Matty Beniers from Jared McCann, Vince Dunn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:18 | BOS | David Krejci from Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 1:17 | SEA | Vince Dunn from Alexander Wennberg | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:23 | BOS | David Pastrnak from David Krejci, Hampus Lindholm | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 8:49 | BOS | Brad Marchand from Patrice Bergeron, Charlie McAvoy | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 9:47 | SEA | Jamie Oleksiak from Morgan Geekie, Jesper Froden | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 17:51 | BOS | Patrice BergeronSH from Brad Marchand | 4–3 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 18:53 | SEA | Yanni GourdePP from Matty Beniers, Jordan Eberle | 4–4 | 29% → 52% |
| P3 15:50 | SEA | Jaden Schwartz from Will Borgen, Jamie Oleksiak | 4–5 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 16:19 | BOS | Brandon Carlo from Hampus Lindholm, Charlie Coyle | 5–5 | 9% → 49% |
| P3 18:22 | BOS | Jake DeBrusk from Charlie McAvoy | 6–5 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrice Bergeron C | 16:09 | 1 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.51 | +0.43 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.16 |
| Brandon Carlo D | 21:20 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.25 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Pastrnak R | 21:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.04 | +0.48 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| David Krejci C | 18:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.07 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Brad Marchand L | 17:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.46 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:37 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.29 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 20:48 | 2 | +0.20 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie Coyle C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 18:05 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 8:31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Zboril D | 7:27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 14:00 | −0.03 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 17:23 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 19:47 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 13:09 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 13:41 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 11:22 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:03 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 60:00 | −1.21 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matty Beniers C | 18:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.06 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 20:03 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.04 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.24 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vince Dunn D | 25:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.14 | +0.69 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:29 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.20 | +0.69 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Jesper Froden R | 10:41 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 18:02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 13:08 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 10:09 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:19 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 10:29 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 18:16 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 20:09 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 13:58 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:11 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.07 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 14:46 | −0.46 | −0.25 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 15:53 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.40 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 58:32 | −2.22 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.