CGY beat ARI 6–3. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jakob Pelletier scored on the power play at 4:53 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 49% to 76%. Dan Vladar allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:39 | CGY | Milan Lucic from Walker Duehr, Trevor Lewis | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 1:11 | ARI | Nick SchmaltzPP from Clayton Keller, Juuso Välimäki | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 9:31 | ARI | Clayton Keller unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 11:06 | ARI | Matias Maccelli unassisted | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 12:58 | CGY | Elias LindholmPP from Nazem Kadri, Tyler Toffoli | 2–3 | 11% → 25% |
| P2 14:00 | CGY | Tyler Toffoli from Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 4:53 | CGY | Jakob PelletierPP from Noah Hanifin, Dillon Dube | 4–3 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 5:17 | CGY | Walker Duehr from Chris Tanev, MacKenzie Weegar | 5–3 | 76% → 93% |
| P3 16:41 | CGY | Mikael BacklundPP from Jakob Pelletier, Andrew Mangiapane | 6–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Duehr R | 13:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.06 | +0.36 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Milan Lucic L | 13:17 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.05 | +0.30 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.08 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Jakob Pelletier L | 14:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.16 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dillon Dube C | 16:02 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 19:09 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 15:46 | +0.21 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:19 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:07 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.10 | −0.32 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:46 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:35 | +0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:17 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.22 | +0.25 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Dennis Gilbert D | 16:40 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 18:50 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 16:25 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.24 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 21:03 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:07 | −0.23 | +0.15 | −0.28 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 59:31 | −1.40 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 21:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.03 | +0.41 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:39 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.16 | +0.37 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:29 | +0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 16:18 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.42 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 20:21 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.22 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Brown D | 3:20 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 14:57 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 14:36 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:54 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 21:02 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 20:33 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 9:51 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 17:48 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 11:17 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 17:21 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.17 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 13:18 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 20:13 | −0.21 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Soderstrom D | 15:06 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −1.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.