NSH beat VAN 5–4 in a shootout. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andrei Kuzmenko scored on the power play at 19:44 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 3% to 49%. Juuse Saros saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:38 | NSH | Cole Smith from Colton Sissons, Jeremy Lauzon | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 7:57 | NSH | Philip TomasinoPP from Juuso Parssinen | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P2 12:47 | VAN | Andrei Kuzmenko from Ethan Bear, Quinn Hughes | 1–2 | 11% → 25% |
| P2 19:38 | VAN | Sheldon DriesPP from Brock Boeser, Conor Garland | 2–2 | 24% → 48% |
| P2 19:50 | NSH | Nino Niederreiter from Tommy Novak, Roman Josi | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 7:44 | NSH | Mikael Granlund from Cody Glass, Juuso Parssinen | 2–4 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 18:53 | VAN | Conor GarlandPP from Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson | 3–4 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 19:44 | VAN | Andrei KuzmenkoPP from J.T. Miller, Anthony Beauvillier | 4–4 | 3% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 22:06 | 2 | +0.84 | +0.06 | +1.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Sheldon Dries C | 11:02 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.04 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 19:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.02 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 7:59 | +0.21 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Christian Wolanin D | 18:30 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 12:01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 12:19 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 24:20 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 20:09 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 12:30 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Studnicka C | 6:17 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:08 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 30:11 | 2 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 22:45 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.15 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 12:32 | −0.47 | −0.09 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 19:21 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.12 | −0.57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 25:17 | 1 | −0.71 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 | −0.51 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 25:58 | 1 | −0.94 | +0.03 | −0.60 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Collin Delia G | 61:17 | −0.90 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Tomasino C | 13:02 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.14 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 14:55 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.15 | +0.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 19:15 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.07 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:02 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.07 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 19:02 | +0.44 | −0.24 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.77 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:26 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 16:28 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 14:03 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.38 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 24:54 | +0.06 | +0.14 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 16:55 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 11:13 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Gravel D | 13:57 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 20:04 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 11:07 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 18:09 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:33 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 12:03 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 25:31 | 1 | −0.92 | −0.02 | −0.56 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.17 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 64:39 | +1.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.