FLA beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 5.2 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Carter Verhaeghe scored at 1:42 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. John Gibson saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:46 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Dmitry Kulikov, Max Jones | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:20 | ANA | Frank VatranoPP from Kevin Shattenkirk, John Klingberg | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 2:12 | FLA | Eric Staal from Radko Gudas | 2–1 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 17:23 | FLA | Marc Staal from Matthew Tkachuk, Eetu Luostarinen | 2–2 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 12:51 | ANA | Dmitry Kulikov from John Klingberg | 3–2 | 49% → 83% |
| P3 14:09 | FLA | Ryan Lomberg from Gustav Forsling, Nick Cousins | 3–3 | 15% → 51% |
| OT 1:42 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Eetu Luostarinen, Matthew Tkachuk | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 21:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.11 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:24 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.01 | +0.49 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 16:43 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.03 | +0.41 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Isac Lundeström C | 17:07 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 22:29 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 13:11 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 8:35 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 19:21 | −0.23 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayson Megna C | 9:18 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Maxime Comtois L | 9:07 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 15:47 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:24 | −0.29 | −0.40 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 18:02 | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 17:08 | −0.68 | +0.07 | −0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 21:05 | 2 | −0.69 | −0.47 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 16:39 | −0.73 | −0.47 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 17:12 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.16 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 19:52 | −0.79 | −0.44 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 61:42 | +1.70 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Staal C | 15:30 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.12 | +0.67 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:51 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.55 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marc Staal D | 20:29 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.04 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 14:35 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.20 | +0.49 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 13:29 | +0.21 | +0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:53 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 18:32 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 3:29 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin White C | 6:54 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 21:59 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.23 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:29 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.36 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 25:21 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Grigori Denisenko L | 4:10 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 18:23 | −0.14 | +0.21 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 22:39 | 2 | −0.16 | +0.43 | −0.86 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 13:03 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.19 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:07 | −0.33 | +0.15 | −0.62 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 19:43 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.36 | −0.71 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 61:42 | +0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.