CHI beat TOR 5–3. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Guttman scored at 11:42 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 85%. Ilya Samsonov allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:44 | CHI | Patrick Kane from Max Domi | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:52 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Morgan Rielly, William Nylander | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 7:57 | CHI | Patrick Kane from Max Domi, Jason Dickinson | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 10:49 | CHI | Patrick Kane from Connor Murphy, Max Domi | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 17:46 | TOR | Noel Acciari from David Kampf, Alexander Kerfoot | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 7:38 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Morgan Rielly, Justin Holl | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 11:42 | CHI | Cole Guttman unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 85% |
| P3 18:44 | CHI | Max DomiEN from Patrick Kane | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 18:17 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.10 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 13:59 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.17 | +0.60 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Tavares C | 15:58 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.06 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 20:09 | +0.18 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 11:09 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:26 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 12:12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 22:16 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 18:26 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 13:23 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:59 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:34 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 16:43 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| William Nylander R | 17:07 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 17:14 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.51 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 14:10 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 13:01 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.18 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Kampf C | 13:35 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 58:22 | −1.29 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kane R | 17:12 | 3 | 1 | +2.35 | −0.07 | +2.38 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cole Guttman C | 13:01 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.11 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 18:03 | 1 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 19:05 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:14 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 8:19 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 16:51 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 16:46 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 11:29 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 11:37 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 17:27 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 16:46 | 1 | 3 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.25 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Jason Dickinson C | 13:37 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 25:14 | −0.26 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 19:41 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 19:41 | −0.40 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 18:33 | −0.45 | +0.10 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 14:15 | −0.56 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Stauber G | 60:00 | +0.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.