MIN beat NSH 4–3. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Hartman scored at 19:39 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 51% to 98%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:09 | MIN | Brandon Duhaime from Frederick Gaudreau | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 1:37 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Joel Eriksson Ek, Mats Zuccarello | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 17:03 |  NSH | Tommy Novak from Kevin Gravel, Jeremy Lauzon | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 1:23 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Ryan Hartman | 1–3 | 78% → 92% |
| P3 15:04 | NSH | Roman Josi from Mattias Ekholm, Tommy Novak | 2–3 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 19:13 | NSH | Nino NiederreiterPP from Roman Josi, Tommy Novak | 3–3 | 4% → 49% |
| P3 19:39 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon | 3–4 | 51% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Novak C | 14:08 | 1 | 2 | +1.00 | +0.12 | +0.70 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:32 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.03 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 27:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.06 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Johansen C | 16:29 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Kevin Gravel D | 10:35 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 11:28 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 10:50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:17 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 17:22 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:41 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 20:55 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 12:54 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 16:31 | −0.28 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:18 | −0.32 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:22 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 11:29 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 17:13 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.37 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 14:52 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.38 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:57 | −0.08 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:58 | 2 | +1.18 | +0.22 | +1.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.16 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 10:48 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 23:26 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 15:08 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:13 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Shaw C | 13:54 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 10:24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:38 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:05 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:46 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 19:17 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:49 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.22 | −0.44 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Beckman L | 11:40 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 11:23 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 12:23 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 17:43 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 17:32 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.01 | −0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | −0.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.