TOR beat MTL 5–1. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Pierre Engvall scored at 13:20 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Joseph Woll saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:42 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Mike Matheson, Jordan Harris | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 5:32 |  TOR | Michael BuntingPP from Auston Matthews, Rasmus Sandin | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 13:20 | TOR | Pierre Engvall unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 18:20 | TOR | Michael Bunting from Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–3 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 3:47 | TOR | William Nylander from Auston Matthews, Mark Giordano | 1–4 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 14:53 | TOR | David Kampf from Pierre Engvall, Rasmus Sandin | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Anderson R | 17:43 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.09 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 19:29 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 12:15 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Schueneman D | 14:20 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 16:12 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:44 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 16:19 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 14:26 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 10:18 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 24:00 | −0.26 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Belzile R | 13:57 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 20:37 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rem Pitlick C | 11:08 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 14:06 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 23:55 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 15:13 | −0.49 | −0.14 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:04 | −0.53 | −0.06 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 17:46 | −0.55 | −0.11 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | −0.38 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bunting L | 13:46 | 2 | +1.78 | +0.12 | +1.48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 14:07 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.06 | +0.62 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 14:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.04 | +0.45 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| William Nylander R | 16:48 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.06 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 18:11 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.21 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 17:30 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 19:50 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 17:43 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:58 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 19:43 | +0.04 | +0.20 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 18:03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:05 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 16:12 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 17:58 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:06 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 12:03 | −0.25 | +0.16 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:41 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:22 | −0.49 | +0.16 | −0.60 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 59:35 | +1.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.