VGK beat SJS 2–1. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: William Carrier scored at 19:42 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Kaapo Kahkonen saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 17:04 | SJS | Alexander Barabanov from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Logan Couture | 1–0 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 6:22 |  VGK | Paul Cotter from Jack Eichel | 1–1 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 19:42 | VGK | William Carrier from Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore | 1–2 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Barabanov L | 14:26 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.05 | +0.40 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 18:32 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 12:00 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 14:06 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Michael Eyssimont C | 12:22 | −0.11 | +0.25 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cicek D | 14:12 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 6:58 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 11:24 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 12:16 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:23 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 7:10 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 20:46 | −0.25 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 21:02 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:06 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.24 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.11 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:13 | −0.58 | −0.07 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.38 | +0.03 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 19:23 | −0.63 | −0.51 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:21 | −0.73 | −0.55 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:48 | −0.74 | −0.11 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 59:32 | +2.65 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Cotter C | 13:12 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.13 | +0.49 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.38 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 16:25 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.19 | +0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 16:05 | +0.26 | +0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 17:45 | +0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:25 | +0.11 | +0.20 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 20:15 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 17:08 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.37 | −0.44 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 15:36 | +0.05 | +0.21 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 21:09 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 19:25 | +0.00 | +0.24 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:22 | +0.00 | +0.40 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 23:23 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.24 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:53 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 13:23 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:31 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 12:10 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 11:18 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 16:35 | −0.28 | +0.18 | −0.67 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | +1.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.