STL beat NJD 4–2. STL lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alexey Toropchenko scored at 4:00 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Jordan Binnington saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:32 |  STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Ivan Barbashev, Ryan O'Reilly | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:30 |  NJD | Dawson Mercer from Jesper Boqvist, Damon Severson | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:00 | STL | Alexey Toropchenko from Nathan Walker, Colton Parayko | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 5:35 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 8:32 | NJD | Erik Haula from Fabian Zetterlund, Yegor Sharangovich | 2–3 | 12% → 27% |
| P3 11:42 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas | 2–4 | 85% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Mercer C | 14:13 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.12 | +0.71 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Haula L | 17:45 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 17:20 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 17:55 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 16:08 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 18:58 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 9:26 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 20:15 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 10:29 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 21:21 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:19 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:55 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.26 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:58 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:12 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 12:41 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 10:37 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 15:35 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.53 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 19:20 | −0.81 | +0.10 | −0.70 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:58 | −1.02 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:01 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.13 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:24 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.67 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.08 | +0.58 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.05 | +0.34 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Tyler Tucker D | 13:58 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 10:29 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 18:25 | 2 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 9:43 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sammy Blais L | 11:30 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:53 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:57 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Calle Rosen D | 20:24 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 12:08 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:07 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 20:10 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 24:21 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 17:26 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 16:24 | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | +1.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.