STL beat FLA 6–2. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brayden Schenn scored on the power play at 11:27 of the first, moving STL’s win probability from 54% to 70%. Spencer Knight allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:27 |  STL | Brayden SchennPP from Torey Krug, Robert Thomas | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 0:35 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Jordan Kyrou | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 12:51 | STL | Nick Leddy from Ivan Barbashev | 0–3 | 89% → 97% |
| P2 18:44 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe | 1–3 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 9:28 | STL | Ryan O'Reilly from Pavel Buchnevich, Ivan Barbashev | 1–4 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 9:48 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Robert Thomas | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 13:28 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour | 2–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 17:12 | STL | Ivan BarbashevEN unassisted | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.06 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:07 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.12 | +0.47 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Grigori Denisenko L | 11:03 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:10 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:20 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 15:05 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:05 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 16:50 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 9:15 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 17:19 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 11:03 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 24:14 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:17 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 10:15 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:10 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:19 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:02 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 15:29 | −0.50 | +0.09 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 57:34 | −2.77 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:23 | 2 | +1.55 | −0.06 | +1.57 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 23:16 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.16 | +0.85 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.14 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:16 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.01 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Torey Krug D | 7:58 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 10:32 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 18:25 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 9:32 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:24 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 23:48 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 13:03 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Rosen D | 21:52 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:23 | 1 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sammy Blais L | 13:18 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:52 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 16:13 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.27 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 18:14 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 17:05 | −0.40 | −0.06 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:40 | +1.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.