CAR beat WSH 3–2. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Stefan Noesen scored on the power play at 11:38 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 69%. Frederik Andersen saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:00 |  CAR | Brent Burns from Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 19:02 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Joe Snively, Dmitry Orlov | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:33 | CAR | Paul Stastny from Calvin de Haan, Stefan Noesen | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 6:23 | WSH | Joe Snively from Trevor van Riemsdyk | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 11:38 | CAR | Stefan NoesenPP from Brady Skjei, Teuvo Teravainen | 3–2 | 48% → 69% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.10 | +0.41 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 8:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.24 | +0.38 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Calvin de Haan D | 13:54 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 8:56 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.28 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:05 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 17:44 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:04 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.17 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.10 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 14:38 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:37 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 14:30 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 24:13 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 23:02 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:20 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 14:13 | −0.20 | +0.16 | −0.28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 8:14 | −0.20 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 16:09 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 16:44 | −0.41 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:49 | −0.50 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.38 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +2.28 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 20:27 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.54 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Snively C | 13:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.13 | +0.31 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| T.J. Oshie R | 17:21 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.03 | +0.22 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:29 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 18:00 | +0.09 | +0.17 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 22:50 | +0.06 | +0.23 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 23:49 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 18:57 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 10:25 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 16:59 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 12:44 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 17:57 | −0.17 | +0.14 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 17:19 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 13:08 | −0.22 | +0.16 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 19:22 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 16:19 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 9:55 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 20:45 | −0.41 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 58:07 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.