MTL beat EDM 6–2. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alex Belzile scored at 8:14 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Stuart Skinner allowed 3.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:14 | MTL | Alex Belzile from Michael Pezzetta, Jesse Ylonen | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:54 | MTL | Jordan Harris from Evgenii Dadonov, Johnathan Kovacevic | 0–2 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 8:23 | MTL | Josh AndersonPP from Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Drouin | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 12:22 |  EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard | 1–3 | 3% → 11% |
| P2 14:59 | EDM | Evander Kane from Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard | 2–3 | 13% → 25% |
| P2 18:41 | MTL | Rafael Harvey-PinardPP from Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki | 2–4 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 2:58 | MTL | Jordan Harris from Joel Armia, Jonathan Drouin | 2–5 | 93% → 99% |
| P3 9:12 | MTL | Christian DvorakSH from Kirby Dach | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:23 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.08 | +0.38 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.12 | |
| Evander Kane L | 18:32 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.14 | +0.88 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 14:51 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 13:08 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 17:30 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 12:46 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 9:37 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 13:42 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 12:57 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 14:52 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 16:59 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 17:56 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:14 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.30 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 13:45 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 16:59 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 22:20 | 1 | −0.68 | +0.06 | −0.91 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 23:51 | −0.96 | +0.01 | −1.09 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 59:16 | −3.20 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Harris D | 23:15 | 2 | +1.39 | −0.04 | +1.63 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 13:47 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.07 | +0.63 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Belzile R | 11:20 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 15:14 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.03 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:10 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Justin Barron D | 16:17 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 24:28 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:14 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 9:58 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 7:59 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:23 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 10:16 | −0.15 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 17:37 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Joel Armia R | 15:19 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 23:16 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:52 | 2 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 15:30 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.50 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:16 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.05 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.13 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | +1.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.