MTL beat NYI 4–3 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mike Matheson scored at 4:38 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:57 |  MTL | Nick Suzuki from Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Josh Anderson | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:01 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Noah Dobson, Sebastian Aho | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 19:55 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Noah Dobson, Brock Nelson | 2–1 | 49% → 73% |
| P3 4:02 | MTL | Justin Barron from Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Hoffman | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 10:54 | NYI | Matt Martin from Alexander Romanov, Scott Mayfield | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 16:44 | MTL | Kirby Dach from Mike Matheson, Mike Hoffman | 3–3 | 10% → 51% |
| OT 4:38 | MTL | Mike Matheson from Mike Hoffman | 3–4 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Martin L | 9:32 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.08 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 21:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.26 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Bo Horvat C | 22:32 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.20 | +0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 16:16 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hudson Fasching R | 9:03 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 20:11 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:08 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:20 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 16:32 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:17 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:01 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 17:01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 9:20 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:35 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 25:57 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 13:38 | −0.27 | −0.22 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 12:56 | −0.45 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 25:47 | −0.45 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 64:07 | −0.94 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Barron D | 17:04 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.17 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.42 | +0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:29 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.06 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 19:29 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.15 | +0.79 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:39 | +0.26 | +0.28 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Alex Belzile R | 9:34 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 8:31 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 17:06 | +0.09 | +0.22 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 14:42 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 17:30 | −0.03 | +0.24 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 16:13 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 19:29 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 24:57 | −0.18 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 9:27 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 16:31 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 17:45 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.13 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 21:12 | −0.32 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:06 | 3 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 64:38 | −0.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.