PIT beat ANA 6–3. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 5.1 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kasperi Kapanen scored on the power play at 17:38 of the first, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 65%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:03 | PIT | Pierre-Olivier Joseph from Teddy Blueger, Josh Archibald | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:26 |  ANA | Trevor ZegrasPP from Adam Henrique | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 17:38 | PIT | Kasperi KapanenPP from Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Bryan Rust | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P1 19:47 | PIT | Jeff Carter from Kasperi Kapanen | 3–1 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 14:55 | PIT | Pierre-Olivier Joseph from Evgeni Malkin | 4–1 | 87% → 96% |
| P3 10:04 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Evgeni Malkin, Chad Ruhwedel | 5–1 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 12:08 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Sidney Crosby | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 13:34 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Jakob Silfverberg, Adam Henrique | 6–2 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 15:58 | ANA | John Klingberg from Mason McTavish, Jakob Silfverberg | 6–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 19:31 | 2 | 1 | +1.59 | +0.05 | +1.57 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jeff Carter C | 15:16 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.03 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.08 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Bryan Rust R | 14:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:35 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brock McGinn L | 13:39 | +0.21 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 8:26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 16:05 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 15:40 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Friedman D | 19:50 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 19:10 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:03 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 15:12 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 9:48 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:09 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 10:12 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.05 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 22:35 | −0.44 | +0.05 | −0.52 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:44 | 1 | −0.60 | +0.06 | −0.79 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:00 | −0.36 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 14:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.01 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.04 |
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:04 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.00 | +0.59 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| John Klingberg D | 18:37 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.09 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 15:45 | 2 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Derek Grant C | 16:00 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 21:54 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 10:39 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:55 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 22:31 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayson Megna C | 8:38 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Maxime Comtois L | 11:29 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Max Jones L | 14:51 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 15:43 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Colton White D | 17:11 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:45 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 16:53 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 18:43 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:47 | −0.70 | −0.05 | −0.67 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 60:00 | −0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.